Dan Wilson’s Blog

According to cnet, Blu-ray will succeed for 9 reasons. CrunchGear disagrees. Money quote:

3. Blu-ray isn’t going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.
No, it’s not going to be replaced by another disc format, but it’s already being replaced by another storage format. Hard drives are cheaper per gig, more convenient, and already in half the devices we own. The optical drive is on its way out; a new disc format would be like a new extra-long-play VHS tape in 2000.

I predicted back in 2003ish, while working for an optical media storage company, that there was room for one more optical media format before the ether took over. Some of my co-workers thought that was off the mark, but in retrospect I may have been too generous.

Digital downloads can and will be evolutionary. Physical formats must be revolutionary. Otherwise they are not compelling enough for consumers. VHS was revolutionary, a format that could rented from a video rental store and taken home and watched with ease. It had a 10 year run before being challenged by DVD, and survived another 10 years before officially dying late last year. DVD was revolutionary over VHS because it went from analog to digital, was superior in sound and video quality, had menus and extras (that some people cared about), and didn’t require rewinding. Now looking at Blu-ray vs. DVD, and all you have is an evolution in sound and video quality. There is also the issue of timing. Most people got their VCRs in the 80s or 90s, then their DVD players in the 2000s. Most of these appliances aren’t 5 years old. Although consumer electronic manufacturers and movie studios would love us to upgrade our hardware and movie collections every five years, the vast majority of consumers do not.

Which brings me to digital downloads. They are the revolution to the DVD, but they will evolve to replace the format over time, without a clearly defined date of launch, and of arriving. For now, they are on devices like the XBOX 360, TiVo, and cable set top boxes, through services like Netflix, Amazon, and Microsoft. Soon they will be built into more TVs and receivers, and there will be more Roku-like set top boxes, or perhaps even HDMI dongles that receive streaming HD content over wireless.

Blu-ray is and will always be stuck in the delivery dilemma, and that is the lack of on-demand. If I want to watch an HD movie with Blu-ray, I must go get the disc, or it must be brought to me. If that is the future, then iTunes’ success must be quite the anomoly.